BMKG Weather Prediction, Basis of the Warning System

The forefront of risk mitigation is the BMKG weather prediction agency. BMKG continues to strive to provide accurate weather predictions to protect the wider community. The current weather warning system is always connected to monitoring sensors. Its reach extends down to the sub-district and village levels.

Category of BMKG Weather Prediction

BMKG is a related agency tasked with disaster management, including weather changes and climate disasters. This weather prediction is connected to various weather monitoring sensors to ensure accuracy. The weather prediction by BMKG is divided into two categories such as nowcasting and forecasting.

1. Nowcasting

Nowcasting is a short-term weather forecast, up to six hours in advance. Its function is to provide early warning of sudden extreme weather events. The prediction is based on current weather data and assumes that the weather will not significantly change. So, it will be useful to predict the weather for the next few hours.

2. Forecasting

Different from the previous, forecasting is a long-term weather prediction. It is divided into three categories such as short-term, medium-term, and long-term. For the short-term forecasts, it is up to 72 hours. The medium-term forecast is up to 240 hours. Lastly, over 10 days are in the long-term forecast. Because of this forecasting, the daily needs, travel planning, and long-term climate predictions can be fulfilled.

The Mechanism

In Indonesia, there is the BMKG as a non-ministerial government agency that is responsible for meteorology, climatology, air quality, and geophysics aspects. Its function in estimating or predicting weather, climate, and disasters is closely linked to data and analysis. The complete mechanism is as follows.

1. Data Collection

The BMKG weather prediction is naturally data-based. The first step is data collection. BMKG obtains data from various sources and collection techniques. For example, weather data is obtained through continuous observation and measurement without a time lag. Measurements are made by monitoring sensors that record and record all natural changes.

2. Data Integration

The next process is data integration. All collected data is entered into a PC server and then forwarded to a central server. The various data stored on this central server is called a database and is used for analysis and prediction purposes.

3. Data Analysis

The results of this data collection will be processed and analyzed by relevant parties and scientists. The results of this analysis include conclusions and weather predictions covering daily and weekly weather, climate change, potential climate disasters, and more. In this modern era, AI technology can assist in the analysis process.

For example, data obtained from sensors for humidity, air temperature, wind direction, and cloud patterns is then analyzed to determine rainfall estimates for a given region. Other objectives include providing weather forecasts for aviation safety, predicting long-term climate change, and even predicting potential climate disasters.

4. Prediction

After analyzing and obtaining a weather forecast, the BMKG releases the forecast to the public. This information is delivered through a weather warning system that sounds an alarm or siren, accompanied by an emergency message.

The Improvement of the Weather Prediction

Examining the work process of BMKG, the weather prediction reveals its complexity. Therefore, efforts are needed to improve accuracy and effectiveness, especially given the growing threat of climate disasters. Here are ways to improve the quality of weather predictions.

1. Training for Forecaster

Successful weather prediction requires the contribution of various parties, especially scientists and experts as forecasters. Therefore, training is needed to improve forecasters' capacity. This capacity involves the ability to identify and prepare data used for prediction purposes.

2. Training in Critical Analysis and Prediction

The second program is training to improve critical analysis and prediction. Critical and analytical thinking are crucial to avoid misinterpreting data. Critical thinking and analytical thinking have their own meaning.

Critical thinking involves analyzing data to explain, while analytical thinking involves analyzing problems to solve them. Once the data is thoroughly understood, conclusions are drawn and used to predict the weather.

3. Improve the Technological System

Besides improving human resource capabilities, technological support is essential. This relates to the monitoring sensors and analysis methods used. This will ensure a more effective and accurate weather prediction process.

For anticipating potential impacts, weather prediction is needed. When severe or extreme weather is predicted, information can be disseminated to the wider public. The weather warning system is crucial for disseminating warning signals. To streamline emergency messages regarding the BMKG weather prediction, a dedicated machine can be provided.

This engine facilitates real-time message delivery to mobile phones because it is based on SMS (Short Message Service). It has a wide frequency range, from 500 m to 2 km, for all operators. This high-tech product is available at smsbroadcaster.com.